They still want a new Cold War: What the New York Times won’t tell you about Syria, Putin and the new battle against ISIS
We despise the foreign leaders a compliant media villainizes. It’s worth looking for the real motivations
It is perverse to find good in the tragic events that took place in Paris 10 days ago, but they did force Washington and the European powers finally to take seriously Moscow’s proposal for a united front against the Islamic State. It is an almost unspeakable pity it took so devastating an act, given the thought that such an alliance might have been enough to prevent Paris altogether. In effect, we watch now as the West acknowledges that there is something, some irreducibly humane value, that supersedes the incessant search for advantage in a strategic rivalry that need not beset us in the first place.
Everything and everyone has turned on a dime since Paris. Russian, French and U.S. aircraft now coordinate bombing sorties over Syrian territory. President Obama conferred, by all appearances earnestly, with Vladimir Putin during the Group of 20 session in Turkey this past week. French President François Hollande will meet with Obama in Washington this week to come and then fly straight to Moscow to see the Russian president—Kissingeresque shuttle diplomacy, à la française. All minds—or most, we must say—are at last focused on defeating ISIS forces. Even Hillary Clinton, comfortable again with hawk’s claws out, is on for this. “We need to get people to turn against the common enemy of ISIS,” she said in a much-noted speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York last Thursday.
A headline in the Guardian a few days ago caught my eye. “Vladimir Putin: From pariah to powerbroker in one year,” it read. A touch overstated, maybe, but Simon Tisdall’s column under it was on the money. “No longer ostracized and browbeaten, Putin was the man everybody wanted to meet,” the British daily’s foreign affairs columnist wrote just as G-20 broke up. “European leaders, backed by Obama, have come to an uncomfortable but, in historical terms, not wholly novel conclusion: They need Russia.” Tisdall’s piece, still much worth reading, is here.
Some of us saw the potential for something even larger than defeat of the Islamic State. A broad rapprochement between the Western powers and Russia—which for all practical purposes is to say between Washington and Moscow—suddenly appeared as a speck on the horizon. Unanimously, these people (I among them) put this prospect in the context of the new agreement governing Iran’s nuclear program. An inch at a time, the 21st century would force Washington to accept some measure of cooperation with those nations it casts as dangerous demons dwelling beyond its idea of where the civilized world’s fences stand.
Not a chance. Well, no chance now that Washington has seen any light, although I remain confident that the 21st century will eventually do its work.
In less than a week it is all too stupidly, stubbornly obvious that the policy cliques in our nation’s capital now attempt a cake-and-eat-it strategy. Post-Paris, there is no longer any room to deflect the argument that the Islamic State must be the No. 1 priority in Syria and that all available hands must join to the task of defeating it. But it grows clearer each day that Washington intends to take part in this effort, if with evident reluctance, while not easing up an iota in its campaign to isolate Russia and sustain the confrontation with Moscow that is in many respects the core of American foreign policy.
A few weeks ago I argued in this space that accurate accounts of the suddenly enlivened Syria crisis were going to be ever harder to come by. Obama had just sent Special Forces troops into Syria in an obvious response to Russia’s new bombing campaign; Secretary of State Kerry had just finished talks in Vienna with more than a dozen foreign ministers, during which a plausible peace plan with a logical sequence was tabled: Eliminate the terrorist threat, establish a ceasefire, then let the U.N. supervise a constitutional revision and elections. Syrians can self-determine Syria—the stated object, after all—and the Assad government’s fate will be in their hands, where it should be.
This was pre-Paris, you will recall, and there were two problems even then.
One, the U.S. priority from the first has been to cultivate a coup against Assad, and it has not altered this objective since the Islamic State’s emergence in June 2014. It only pretends to, and only sometimes, while continuing to arm extremist militias of nobody-has-ever-known-what loyalties. Two, Russia backed the peace plan tabled in Vienna. To support it would lessen tensions with Moscow, artificially sustained as they are, and acknowledge Russia as a world power, which it is. Neither of these is acceptable in Washington.
The fog machine has been firing on all eight ever since. Post-Paris the stakes run even higher and the smoke, hence, is even thicker. At issue now is a prospect far larger than the defeat of the Islamic State, in my view. The overarching confrontation between the West and Russia—the European powers being America’s conscripts—is suddenly open to resolution. Vienna threatens Washington’s war, and now Paris, much more directly.
Certain imperatives come clear. It is imperative that Washington’s policy in Syria be something of a blur. It is imperative that ordinary people trying to understand events cannot: We must misunderstand. It is imperative that we maintain our seething contempt for Russia and, magnitudes more important, its president. Russophobia and Putinophobia—yours and mine—are essential to maintain. The dangers are that we might recognize that a rational settlement in Syria is now under discussion and that we might realize that Cold War-ish animosities toward Russia make chumps of those who harbor them—having been poured into our heads just as they were 50, 40 and 30 years ago.
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This column is blessed with some intelligent readers, and two recently wrote with thoughts worth passing on. (I will leave their professional affiliations out of it.)
“Putin is one step ahead of us, with Iran and now with Syria, but it still takes two to tango,” Sioan Bethel wrote after the second round of talks in Vienna (and pre-Paris). “The great powers, in concert, will sort Syria out, as well as the Israel-Palestine solution. Perhaps we are witnessing a return to the ‘Congress of Vienna’ modus operandi. It would make Metternich proud.”
This is the kind of larger-bore thinking I mentioned above. And Bethel’s reference to the Congress of Vienna is especially useful. It took place in the Austrian capital in 1814-15, just after the Napoleonic Wars, and was intended to stabilize Europe by fixing very messy borders and establishing a balance of power. It was high-conservative in outlook and far from perfect, but it brought Europe a period of peace based on a recognition of interests. (Klemens, prince von Metternich, was the Austrian emperor’s chancellor and chaired the proceedings.)
After the Paris events, a reader named Vladimir Signorelli sent this note:
A Franco-Russian alliance? Bismarck must be rolling over in his grave. Still, Hollande might be due for man of the year honors if his diplomatic overtures lead to a breakthrough:
1) He publicly expressed skepticism on Russian sanctions back in January, which made it acceptable for lesser E.U. states to stand athwart Berlin.
2) He was instrumental in getting Minsk II accords [on Ukraine] established, which, arguably, opened a path for normalization of E.U.-Russia relations.
3) He’s agreed to coordinate moves with Russia on Syria. A grand alliance could be in the making.
Again, I find this astute. If Hollande is a Second International socialist I must have lost the plot at some point, but we can set this aside. The chronology here reveals an intent on France’s part one never reads about in U.S. media. One, Europeans—and I think we can include many or most of its leaders—have long been restless, if irresolute, within the frame of confrontation the U.S. superimposes on relations with Russia. Two, Hollande appears to understand that Russophobic Washington could now prove an impediment to the united-front strategy to counter the Islamic State, not to mention all that could flow from it.